Bitcoin (BTC) enters May 2025 with renewed momentum, climbing over 14% in the past 30 days and trading just 6.3% below the pivotal $100,000 milestone. Behind this upward trajectory, a critical on-chain metric—Bitcoin’s apparent demand—has turned positive for the first time since late February, signaling a shift in market dynamics and investor behavior.
However, while on-chain sentiment improves, inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs remain muted compared to the robust activity seen in 2024. This discrepancy suggests that although existing holders are accumulating, broad institutional confidence has yet to fully return. With macroeconomic headwinds persisting, the stage is set for a pivotal month that could determine whether Bitcoin sustains its climb or consolidates ahead of a potential summer rally.
Bitcoin Apparent Demand Turns Positive: A Signal of Renewed Accumulation
A key indicator of market health, apparent demand, has shown a marked turnaround. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin’s apparent demand has risen to +65,000 BTC—the net change in holdings across all investor groups. This represents a dramatic reversal from March 27, when it plunged to -311,000 BTC, reflecting widespread selling pressure.
Apparent demand measures whether capital is flowing into or out of the Bitcoin network by analyzing wallet balance changes across exchanges, miners, and long-term holders. A positive reading indicates net accumulation, often preceding price rallies.
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The turning point came on April 24, when apparent demand flipped positive and has remained so for six consecutive days—its first sustained positive stretch in nearly two months. This shift suggests that whales and long-term investors may be stepping in, absorbing available supply.
Yet, despite this improvement, the current accumulation pace remains below the highs of early 2024. The lack of strong fresh inflows implies that much of the buying is coming from existing holders reallocating assets rather than new capital entering the ecosystem.
For a sustainable rally to materialize, both apparent demand and demand momentum must grow in tandem. Until institutional wallets show consistent buying patterns, any price surge may lack the fuel for longevity.
Miners’ Outflows Signal Short-Term Pressure
Another critical factor is miner behavior. Recent data shows a spike in miner outflows—the third-largest in 2025 so far—with over 23,000 BTC moved from mining wallets. Historically, large miner sell-offs precede price corrections.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, warns:
"Extreme selling from Bitcoin miners usually implies higher volatility and downside risks. For example, in February, a 23K BTC outflow preceded a drop from $92,000 to $78,000 within two days. With low profitability amid current price levels, further miner selling could pressure Bitcoin downward."
Miners often sell to cover operational costs, especially during periods of low prices or high energy expenses. Their reduced profitability suggests that supply-side pressure could persist in the near term.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Lag Behind 2024 Pace
One of the most influential drivers of Bitcoin’s 2024 bull run—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—has seen significantly weaker activity in 2025. Daily net flows have fluctuated between -5,000 and +3,000 BTC since late March, a sharp decline from late 2024 when daily inflows regularly exceeded 8,000 BTC.
To date in 2025, spot ETFs have accumulated only 28,000 BTC collectively—less than 14% of the over 200,000 BTC purchased by this time last year. This slowdown reflects waning institutional appetite or cautious positioning amid macro uncertainty.
ETF inflows are widely regarded as a proxy for institutional conviction. Sustained buying would signal confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition. Conversely, flat or negative flows suggest hesitation—possibly due to regulatory concerns, geopolitical tensions, or risk-off sentiment in traditional markets.
While there are early signs of recovery—with inflows modestly increasing in recent weeks—the volume remains insufficient to catalyze a powerful upward breakout. A return to strong, consistent ETF demand would likely act as a major catalyst for renewed bullish momentum.
Bitcoin Nears $100K Amid Macroeconomic Volatility
Despite external pressures—including global trade tensions and fluctuating equity markets—Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience. After briefly dipping below $75,000 in April, BTC has rebounded strongly, gaining over 14% and closing in on $100,000.
This relative strength suggests Bitcoin may be increasingly viewed as a hedge against macroeconomic instability. With inflation concerns lingering and central banks maintaining uncertain monetary policies, digital assets like Bitcoin are gaining traction as alternative stores of value.
Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, highlights this evolving role:
"Beyond price action, growing institutional interest and structural supply constraints point to a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s role within global finance. Its liquidity, scarcity, and resistance to censorship make it an attractive alternative to traditional financial instruments."
Jin believes the $95,000–$98,000 range could serve as a launchpad for a decisive breakout above $100,000 in the coming days.
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She forecasts a potential summer rally toward $150,000—if institutional accumulation continues and macro conditions stabilize. In a more optimistic scenario, she suggests Bitcoin could extend toward $200,000 by 2026.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin likely to reach $100,000 in May 2025?
A: Yes—Bitcoin is currently just 6.3% below $100,000 and showing strong technical and on-chain signals of accumulation. If ETF inflows improve and macro conditions stabilize, a breakout could occur within days.
Q: What is apparent demand in Bitcoin?
A: Apparent demand measures the net change in Bitcoin holdings across investor cohorts over 30 days. A positive reading indicates more buying than selling and is often a precursor to price increases.
Q: Why are miner outflows important?
A: Miners sell BTC to cover operational costs. Large outflows suggest financial stress and can increase selling pressure, potentially leading to short-term price drops.
Q: How do ETF inflows affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs represent institutional demand. Strong inflows inject new capital into the market and often drive sustained rallies—as seen in late 2024.
Q: Could Bitcoin reach $150,000 in 2025?
A: According to MEXC’s COO Tracy Jin, a summer rally to $150,000 is plausible if current accumulation trends continue and macro risks subside.
Q: What risks could delay Bitcoin’s rally?
A: Continued weak ETF inflows, further miner selling, geopolitical instability, or tighter monetary policy could delay or dampen the next upward move.
Final Outlook: A Make-or-Break Month for Bitcoin
May 2025 stands as a critical juncture for Bitcoin. On one hand, improving on-chain metrics and proximity to $100,000 suggest bullish momentum is building. On the other hand, sluggish ETF activity and miner distribution pose near-term risks.
The convergence of technical strength, structural scarcity (with halving effects now fully priced in), and macro hedging demand creates fertile ground for a breakout. But sustained institutional participation will be essential to push beyond psychological resistance levels.
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If demand aligns across retail holders, institutions, and ETFs, a summer rally toward $150,000 is not only possible—it may be inevitable. For now, all eyes are on $95,000 as the likely springboard for the next leg up.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.