In the past 24 hours, XRP has surged over 3.5%, reflecting growing bullish sentiment across the market. On Deribit’s options exchange, trading activity has centered around key strike prices—particularly the $3 call options expiring on July 25 and September 28—suggesting traders are positioning for a potential breakout. This surge in demand is not just speculative; it's backed by fundamental developments, including Ripple’s bold move to apply for a national bank charter and rising expectations for an XRP ETF approval in the United States.
Bullish Options Activity Points to $3+ Target
Data from Amberdata reveals that the most actively traded options contracts on Deribit are the $3 call options for July 25 and the $2.80 calls set to expire on September 28. A call option gives the buyer the right—but not the obligation—to purchase the underlying asset at a predetermined price (the strike) before expiration. In this case, investors buying $3 call options are effectively betting that XRP’s spot price will exceed $3 by late July.
What makes this activity significant is the volume and direction of trades. Over the past day, approximately 2 million XRP option contracts at the $3 strike were traded, primarily through buy-side orders. This indicates strong institutional and retail interest in higher price levels. Conversely, the $2.80 strike saw more selling pressure, with investors writing (selling) those options—often a sign of profit-taking or hedging lower-risk positions.
👉 Discover how smart traders are positioning ahead of major crypto catalysts.
Open interest—the total number of outstanding derivative contracts—has also increased notably over the past week for the $3 call options. This growing open interest alongside rising volume confirms sustained bullish momentum rather than a short-lived spike.
ETF Hopes Soar: 95% Chance of SEC Approval?
According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the surge in high-strike call options has significantly increased market confidence in an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). They now estimate the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot XRP ETF at 95%—a near-certainty in financial markets.
This optimism stems from Ripple’s recent legal progress and regulatory engagement. Unlike other cryptocurrencies facing prolonged litigation, Ripple has been actively working within the system, setting precedents with its partial victory against the SEC earlier in 2023. The company’s continued compliance efforts and transparent operations have positioned XRP as one of the most legally defensible digital assets.
Moreover, if approved, an XRP ETF would open the door to massive inflows from institutional investors, pension funds, and retail traders who prefer regulated investment vehicles. Such approval could mirror the impact seen with Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, potentially triggering a new wave of adoption and price appreciation.
Ripple’s National Bank Charter Bid: A Game Changer?
In a strategic move that could reshape the stablecoin landscape, Ripple Labs announced it has formally applied for a national bank charter through the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). If approved, this would grant Ripple both federal oversight and state-level regulation via New York’s Department of Financial Services (NYDFS).
Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, emphasized the significance of this step in a post on X (formerly Twitter):
“If approved, we’ll have both state (via NYDFS) and federal supervision—a new benchmark for trust in the stablecoin market.”
This dual-layered regulatory framework would allow Ripple to issue its own regulated stablecoins and operate banking services, potentially rivaling established players like JPMorgan’s JPM Coin or Circle’s USDC. More importantly, it reinforces XRP’s role as a bridge currency in cross-border payments—a use case already adopted by dozens of financial institutions worldwide.
Technical Breakout: The XRP/BTC Bullish Wedge Confirmed
Beyond fundamental catalysts, technical analysis paints an equally promising picture—especially when examining the XRP/BTC trading pair listed on Binance.
The XRP/BTC chart has formed a classic rising wedge pattern—a bullish reversal formation characterized by two converging trendlines that narrow over time. This pattern typically signals weakening selling pressure and accumulation before a breakout.
Recently, XRP/BTC broke above the upper resistance trendline, confirming the bullish reversal. Historically, such breakouts lead to significant upward momentum as short-sellers cover positions and new buyers enter the market. The pattern suggests that the corrective phase from April’s highs has ended and that the broader uptrend for XRP is resuming.
However, not all indicators align perfectly. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) remain bearish in orientation, with the 50-day SMA recently crossing below the 200-day—a so-called "death cross" that traditionally signals long-term bearishness.
But here's the catch: moving averages are lagging indicators. They reflect past price action and often fail to capture sudden shifts in momentum driven by news or macro developments. Given the recent regulatory advancements and ETF speculation, it's plausible that price has already moved ahead of these technical signals.
👉 See how top traders analyze crypto charts before making moves.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Core Keywords: XRP price prediction, XRP ETF approval, Ripple national bank license, XRP/BTC technical analysis, XRP staking, Deribit options volume, SEC and XRP, Ripple OCC application.
- The $3 call option dominance shows strong market conviction.
- ETF odds at 95% per Bloomberg analysts—highest ever recorded.
- Ripple’s OCC application could revolutionize stablecoin issuance and trust.
- Technical breakout on XRP/BTC confirms resumption of bull trend.
- Moving averages remain cautious but may soon catch up with price action.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a $3 call option mean for XRP?
A: A $3 call option allows investors to buy XRP at $3 before expiration. Heavy trading in these options suggests strong belief that XRP will trade above $3 soon—potentially signaling a target price.
Q: How likely is an XRP ETF approval?
A: Analysts from Bloomberg now estimate a 95% chance of SEC approval for a spot XRP ETF, driven by Ripple’s regulatory progress and growing institutional demand.
Q: Why is Ripple applying for a national bank license?
A: A national charter would allow Ripple to operate under full federal oversight, enabling it to issue regulated stablecoins and expand its cross-border payment network with greater credibility.
Q: What does the XRP/BTC wedge pattern indicate?
A: The confirmed breakout from a rising wedge on XRP/BTC is a bullish reversal signal, suggesting that downward correction has ended and upward momentum is returning.
Q: Are moving averages still bearish for XRP?
A: Yes, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs are trending downward and recently formed a death cross. However, these are lagging indicators and may not reflect current bullish momentum.
Q: Where can I track real-time XRP options data?
A: Deribit remains the primary platform for crypto options trading. For analytics and volume tracking, platforms like Amberdata and Skew provide reliable insights into open interest and flow.
The convergence of strong options positioning, regulatory milestones, and technical confirmation creates a powerful narrative for XRP’s next leg higher. While short-term volatility remains possible, the long-term trajectory appears increasingly aligned with institutional adoption and macro acceptance.
👉 Stay ahead of crypto trends with tools used by professional traders.