Gold prices have recently faced headwinds as geopolitical tensions eased and macroeconomic signals created mixed sentiment in the financial markets. With the precious metal retreating from recent highs, traders and investors are closely watching critical technical support levels, particularly on the weekly chart, while assessing evolving global risks and central bank policy outlooks.
Geopolitical Tensions Subside, Weakening Safe-Haven Demand
A 12-day flare-up between Israel and Iran that began on June 13 concluded with a ceasefire agreement brokered by Qatar. Despite Iran launching retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases, vital energy shipping routes—including the Strait of Hormuz—remained unobstructed. This containment of conflict significantly reduced market anxiety, leading to a pullback in safe-haven assets.
👉 Discover how geopolitical events influence gold prices in real time.
As tensions cooled, spot gold retreated to close at $3,368.98 per ounce, nearly flat on the day but down sharply from intraday highs. Similarly, crude oil reversed course—slumping 9% after earlier surging 5%—as fears of supply disruptions faded. U.S. stock index futures rose, reflecting improved risk appetite across global markets.
Former President Trump criticized the U.S. response as “weak,” but his comments did little to reignite volatility. The swift de-escalation underscored how quickly sentiment can shift in commodity markets when geopolitical risks appear contained—even if underlying tensions persist.
Fed Policy Outlook: Dovish Signals Fail to Boost Gold
Despite a dovish surprise from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, who suggested a potential rate cut as early as July, gold failed to gain upward momentum. The comment weighed on Treasury yields and pushed the U.S. dollar lower—typically supportive conditions for non-yielding assets like gold—but the metal showed limited reaction.
This muted response highlights growing complexity in gold’s price drivers. While lower interest rates generally favor gold by reducing opportunity costs, current market dynamics are being overshadowed by stronger forces:
- Reduced geopolitical risk premium
- Stronger-than-expected economic data
- Lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s actual pace of easing
The U.S. economy continues to face a delicate balancing act: inflation remains above target, yet growth indicators suggest some moderation. If Middle East tensions reignite and oil prices spike again, stagflationary pressures could return—potentially reigniting strong demand for gold as a hedge.
Technical Outlook: Gold in a Ranging Downtrend
From a technical perspective, gold is currently exhibiting a range-bound downtrend, with resistance holding firm near key psychological and structural levels.
Monthly Chart: Watch the May Range Breakout
On the monthly timeframe, May closed as a doji—a sign of indecision—confirming the ongoing battle between bulls and bears. The critical level to watch in June is whether price can close above May’s high. A decisive monthly close above this level would signal a resumption of the long-term bullish trend.
The major long-term bullish confirmation point remains at $2,780, which acts as a strategic divider for macro investors.
Weekly Chart: Support at $3,280 Holds—for Now
The weekly chart reveals that gold has found support around $3,280—a zone that has historically acted as a strong floor during previous corrections. As long as this level holds, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact.
However, any weekly close below $3,280 could open the door to deeper corrections toward $3,100 or lower. Therefore, monitoring weekly candlestick closes is essential for assessing trend integrity.
👉 Stay ahead of key support breaks with real-time market analytics.
Daily and 4-Hour Views: Resistance at $3,360–$3,365
On the daily chart, gold recently broke below $3,365, a pivotal level that now acts as resistance. This breakdown confirms short-term bearish momentum.
Intraday traders should focus on the $3,360–$3,365 resistance zone. Any rally into this area presents a potential shorting opportunity with targets toward $3,320** and ultimately **$3,280.
The four-hour chart reinforces this view: after a gap open followed by rejection at prior highs near $3,396, price dropped sharply overnight and closed with a large bearish candle—indicating strong selling pressure.
Until gold regains and sustains above $3,405, the bias remains bearish in the short term, even if the broader medium-term structure remains constructive.
Key Economic Events to Watch This Week
Market participants should remain alert to upcoming data releases that could influence both dollar strength and rate expectations:
- 16:00 – Germany June IFO Business Climate Index
- 18:00 – UK June CBI Industrial Orders
- 20:30 – Canada May CPI Monthly Rate
- 20:30 – US Q1 Current Account
- 21:00 – US April FHFA House Price Index
- 21:00 – S&P/CS 20-City Home Price Index (YoY)
- 21:00 – ECB President Lagarde Speech
- 21:15 – Fed’s Hammack on Monetary Policy
- 22:00 – US June Consumer Confidence Index
- 22:00 – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
- 22:00 – Fed Chair Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Testimony
- 22:15 – Hammack Panel Discussion
- 00:30 (next day) – NY Fed President Williams Speech
- 04:30 (next day) – Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
Among these, Powell’s testimony will be especially influential. Any shift in tone—particularly regarding inflation progress or future rate cuts—could trigger significant moves in gold and broader financial markets.
Core Keywords
- Gold price analysis
- Weekly support $3280
- Gold resistance levels
- Geopolitical impact on gold
- Fed rate cut expectations
- Technical analysis gold
- Market volatility and gold
- Gold downtrend 2025
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why did gold prices fall despite Fed rate cut signals?
Even though lower interest rates typically benefit gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, other factors like reduced geopolitical risk and stronger risk appetite can outweigh dovish central bank signals. In this case, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran diminished safe-haven demand more than rate cut speculation boosted gold.
What happens if gold breaks below $3,280?
A confirmed break below the **$3,280 weekly support** could signal a shift in the medium-term trend. It may lead to accelerated selling toward $3,100 or lower, especially if accompanied by rising bond yields or a stronger dollar. Traders should watch for weekly closing prices below this level for confirmation.
Is gold still a good hedge against inflation?
Yes. Gold has historically served as a reliable store of value during periods of high inflation and currency devaluation. While it may underperform during times of stable growth and rising rates, its long-term role as an inflation hedge remains strong—especially if stagflation returns due to oil shocks or supply constraints.
How do oil prices affect gold?
Oil and gold often move together during inflationary or crisis periods. Rising oil prices can increase inflation expectations, which supports gold. Additionally, oil-related geopolitical tensions tend to boost demand for both commodities as hedges. However, if higher oil prices slow economic growth without triggering inflation (rare), gold may underperform.
What technical levels should I watch for short-term trading?
Key levels include:
- Resistance: $3,360–$3,365
- Breakout level: $3,405
- Support targets: $3,320 → $3,280
A sustained move above $3,405 would suggest bullish momentum returning.
Can gold resume its uptrend in 2025?
Yes—provided that either (1) geopolitical risks escalate again, (2) the Fed begins cutting rates amid softening data, or (3) inflation re-accelerates. As long as weekly support at $3,280 holds and macro conditions evolve toward looser monetary policy, the long-term bullish case for gold remains intact.
👉 Access advanced tools to track gold’s next breakout or breakdown.