The cryptocurrency market has seen renewed momentum, with Story (IP) emerging as a standout performer following a double-digit surge. Despite a broader market downturn over the weekend, IP demonstrated resilience, bouncing back strongly while other digital assets continued to slide. This counter-trend movement has sparked renewed interest among traders and analysts alike, prompting a closer look at the technical structure and potential next moves for the IP/USDT pair.
Technical Structure: A Long-Term Descending Channel
Since March, the IP price has traded within a well-defined descending parallel channel, a pattern often associated with corrective phases in asset price movements. These channels typically form during periods of consolidation or pullbacks and suggest that a breakout—either upward or downward—is eventually likely.
As of now, the price has climbed back to the midline of this channel, creating a pivotal decision point. Will it continue upward toward the upper resistance trendline near $3.60, or will it resume its decline toward the lower support around $1.60?
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This zone also aligns with key horizontal price levels, adding confluence to the technical setup:
- Resistance: $3.60
- Support: $1.60
Reaching either of these levels could trigger significant volume and directional momentum, depending on market sentiment and whale activity.
Mixed Signals From Technical Indicators
While the chart structure provides some clarity, momentum indicators are currently sending mixed signals:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory (below 30) and is now trending higher, indicating short-term buying pressure. However, no bullish divergence has formed yet—meaning the recent bounce may lack strong underlying conviction.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also shown signs of stabilization, with both lines beginning to turn upward. Still, it has not generated a confirmed bullish crossover, suggesting that bearish momentum may not be fully exhausted.
Given these ambiguous readings on the daily timeframe, traders should remain cautious. The absence of clear confirmation from oscillators means the current bounce could be a countertrend correction rather than the start of a new bullish phase.
Elliott Wave Analysis: A Bearish Outlook Takes Shape
Beyond classical chart patterns, Elliott Wave theory offers a compelling narrative for where IP might be headed next.
According to wave analysis, IP is currently in Wave C of an A-B-C corrective structure that began in March. This type of correction is typically the final leg of a larger pullback before a new uptrend begins.
Within this framework:
- Wave A was the initial sharp decline.
- Wave B represented a corrective rebound.
- Wave C, currently underway, is expected to extend downward, often reaching parity or exceeding the length of Wave A.
A closer examination of the current movement reveals that IP is likely in Sub-Wave 4 of Wave C, which has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle on the six-hour chart.
Symmetrical triangles are common in Wave 4 positions and are considered continuation patterns. They usually resolve in the direction of the larger trend—in this case, downward.
Therefore, a breakdown below the lower boundary of this triangle would confirm the resumption of bearish momentum and open the door for a drop toward $1.60–$1.70.
Is the Correction Over?
Many investors hope the recent bounce signals the end of the downtrend. After all, IP has dropped more than 50% since early May, hitting a low of $2.44 in June—a level that may have attracted value buyers.
Moreover, on-chain data suggests significant accumulation by large holders ("whales"), with nearly $50 million worth of IP reportedly scooped up during the dip. Such activity often precedes meaningful price reversals.
However, technical evidence does not yet support a full reversal. Instead, the most probable scenario remains a final push lower to complete the long-term correction.
Once Wave C concludes near $1.60–$1.70, the stage could be set for a powerful upward move—a new bullish cycle driven by renewed investor confidence and potential protocol developments.
Key Levels to Watch
Traders should monitor the following critical levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $3.60 (upper channel line and horizontal resistance)
- Breakout Confirmation: A close above $3.60 could invalidate the bearish outlook and trigger short-covering.
- Downside Target: $1.60–$1.70 (projected end of Wave C)
- Triangle Breakdown: A decisive close below the symmetrical triangle’s support on the six-hour chart would signal bearish continuation.
Volume will play a crucial role in determining which direction prevails. High-volume breakouts or breakdowns tend to have greater follow-through.
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FAQ Section
Q: Why is Story (IP) rising while other cryptos are falling?
A: IP's recent bounce may be attributed to whale accumulation during the June dip. Large investors purchasing significant volumes can create buying pressure that propels price upward, even in a weak broader market.
Q: What is a symmetrical triangle pattern?
A: It’s a neutral chart pattern formed by converging trendlines connecting lower highs and higher lows. It typically resolves in the direction of the prior trend—here, downward—as part of Wave 4 in Elliott Wave theory.
Q: Is IP likely to rebound soon?
A: While short-term rebounds are possible, technical structure suggests one final decline toward $1.60–$1.70 is more probable before a sustainable uptrend begins.
Q: What does whale accumulation mean for IP’s price?
A: When whales buy large amounts of an asset, it often indicates confidence in future value. This can reduce circulating supply and set the foundation for future rallies once selling pressure subsides.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for cryptocurrencies?
A: While not foolproof, Elliott Wave theory provides a structured way to interpret market psychology and cycle dynamics. When combined with volume and pattern analysis, it enhances forecasting accuracy.
Q: Could IP break out above $3.60?
A: Yes—a sustained close above $3.60 would challenge the bearish thesis and could lead to a retest of higher levels. However, current momentum and structure make this outcome less likely in the near term.
In summary, while Story (IP) has shown signs of strength amid broader market weakness, the technical picture still favors further downside before a long-term recovery begins. Traders should watch for confirmation signals—both in price action and volume—before positioning for a new bullish phase.