The conversation around an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has intensified, drawing attention from major financial institutions, crypto analysts, and retail investors alike. With growing speculation and shifting regulatory signals, market sentiment is cautiously optimistic—though not without skepticism. As the crypto world watches for potential approval by the SEC, forecasts from Standard Chartered and insights from Bitfinex offer contrasting outlooks on both inflows and price impact.
XRP ETF Inflows Could Reach $8.3 Billion, Analysts Estimate
Interest in a spot XRP ETF has surged following the successful launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. According to recent analysis by Standard Chartered, inflows into a US-listed XRP ETF could reach as high as $8.3 billion within the first 12 months of approval.
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, emphasized that while precise predictions are difficult, historical data from existing ETFs provides a solid benchmark. He pointed to the net asset value (NAV) as a percentage of market cap—currently around 6% for Bitcoin and 3% for Ethereum—to project a similar range for XRP.
“At current XRP market cap, that would imply a range of $4.4 billion to $8.3 billion as a future total NAV measure for an XRP ETF, which seems like a reasonable target range for inflows in the first 12 months,” Kendrick explained.
This projection hinges on regulatory approval and investor appetite. With Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the SEC adding complexity, timing remains uncertain—but momentum is building.
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Standard Chartered Forecasts XRP Price to Hit $8 by 2026
Beyond inflow estimates, Standard Chartered has issued a bold price forecast for XRP. If a spot ETF is approved, Kendrick predicts the token could rise to **$8 by the end of 2026**, representing a more than **260% increase** from current levels near $2.22.
The bank’s long-term outlook includes:
- $5.50 by end of 2025
- $8.00 by end of 2026
- $10.40 by end of 2027
- $12.50 by end of 2028
- $12.25 by end of 2029
These targets factor in XRP’s annual inflation rate of 6%—higher than Bitcoin’s 0.8%—but reflect confidence in increased institutional adoption and liquidity once an ETF is live.
Standard Chartered's bullish stance aligns with broader macro expectations, including their forecast for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025** and **$500,000 by 2028.
Bitfinex Warns of Limited Demand for XRP ETF
Not all analysts share this optimism. Bitfinex researchers have issued a more cautious assessment, warning that investor demand for an XRP ETF may be limited compared to Bitcoin or even Ethereum.
“We expect limited inflows into an XRP ETF as some investors may choose to broaden their exposure across available crypto ETFs. However, it is unlikely to see the level of flows experienced by Bitcoin,” Bitfinex analysts stated.
Their concern stems from several factors:
- Regulatory ambiguity: XRP remains under legal scrutiny, with past SEC allegations labeling it a security.
- Market dominance: Bitcoin continues to dominate crypto ETF inflows, capturing over 90% of total investments.
- Investor preference: Many institutions favor established assets with clearer regulatory pathways.
This divergence in sentiment highlights a key challenge facing altcoin ETFs: overcoming investor skepticism in a market still learning to value digital assets beyond BTC and ETH.
Regulatory Timeline and Competitive Landscape
As of now, multiple firms—including Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares—have filed applications for spot XRP ETFs with the SEC. The final decision deadline for Bitwise’s application is October 12, marking 240 days from official receipt—a timeline mirroring the BTC ETF approval window.
However, analysts believe Litecoin may receive approval before XRP due to its classification as a Bitcoin fork, making it easier for regulators to treat it as a commodity.
ETF expert Eric Balchunas echoed this view:
“We expect a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs next year… First out is likely the BTC + ETH combo ETFs, then probably Litecoin… then XRP/Solana (which have been labeled securities in pending lawsuits).”
This sequencing suggests that while XRP ETF approval is probable, it may come later in the rollout cycle—potentially affecting early momentum.
Key Factors Influencing XRP ETF Success
Several elements will determine whether an XRP ETF meets or falls short of expectations:
1. SEC Precedent and Legal Clarity
Ripple’s ongoing litigation with the SEC over whether XRP is a security remains central. A definitive regulatory green light would significantly boost investor confidence.
2. Institutional Adoption
ETFs attract traditional finance players. Widespread institutional interest will depend on custody solutions, tax treatment, and integration into mainstream portfolios.
3. Market Competition
With Solana, Litecoin, and others also vying for ETF status, capital may be spread thin across multiple altcoin products.
4. Public Sentiment and Awareness
Unlike Bitcoin, XRP lacks universal name recognition among retail investors. Education campaigns and media coverage will play a crucial role in driving demand.
👉 See how leading institutions are positioning ahead of the next wave of crypto ETF launches.
FAQ: Your Questions About XRP ETFs Answered
Q: What is an XRP ETF?
A: An XRP exchange-traded fund allows investors to gain exposure to the price of XRP without directly holding the cryptocurrency. It trades on traditional stock exchanges like any other ETF.
Q: When will the SEC decide on an XRP ETF?
A: The final deadline for one major application (Bitwise) is October 12. However, delays or extensions are possible depending on regulatory workload and other pending filings.
Q: Why is there uncertainty about XRP ETF approval?
A: Because the SEC previously sued Ripple Labs, alleging that XRP was sold as an unregistered security. Until there's full legal clarity, approval remains uncertain.
Q: How could an XRP ETF affect the token’s price?
A: Approval could drive significant buying pressure through institutional inflows, potentially pushing prices higher—especially if early demand exceeds expectations.
Q: Will XRP ETFs perform like Bitcoin ETFs?
A: Likely not at the same scale. Bitcoin dominates crypto investment flows, so while an XRP ETF could succeed, it may see more moderate adoption initially.
Q: Which companies have applied for an XRP ETF?
A: Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary, and 21Shares have all submitted applications to the SEC for spot XRP ETFs.
Final Outlook: Cautious Optimism Ahead
While Standard Chartered’s $8 price target captures headlines, the path to realization depends heavily on regulatory outcomes and market dynamics. With Polymarket currently pricing in a 79% chance of approval by December 31, expectations are rising—but so are risks.
For investors, the coming months will be critical. Watch for:
- SEC decisions on Litecoin and Solana ETFs
- Updates in Ripple’s legal case
- Growing institutional interest in altcoin diversification
Whether XRP can replicate the success of Bitcoin ETFs remains to be seen—but one thing is clear: the era of crypto ETFs is expanding beyond BTC and ETH.
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