Shiba Inu (SHIB) has been under intense scrutiny as its long-standing support level faces growing pressure. After a brief 45% rally in March helped the cryptocurrency avoid an immediate breakdown, momentum stalled—leaving investors questioning whether SHIB can hold its critical $0.0000113 support zone or if a deeper correction lies ahead.
With technical indicators leaning bearish and wave count models pointing toward potential new lows, understanding the current market structure is essential for traders and long-term holders alike.
SHIB Finds Temporary Relief at Key Support Zone
On the weekly chart, Shiba Inu has been tracing a path along an ascending trend line since June 2023—a pattern that has held through multiple market cycles. This dynamic support line recently converged with a strong horizontal support level at $0.0000113, forming a confluence zone that has historically acted as a market floor.
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In early March, SHIB bounced sharply from this dual-layered support, fueling a rally that lifted prices by over 45%. The rebound briefly rekindled bullish hopes, especially as traders watched for a breakout above the resistance zone at $0.0000156.
However, the momentum failed to sustain. By late March, price action reversed, erasing most of the monthly gains and settling back near the support confluence. Notably, the recent dip did not fully "sweep" the August 2024 lows—a technical nuance suggesting the correction may still be in progress rather than complete.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Looking deeper into momentum indicators, both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reflect weakening strength:
- The RSI remains below 50, indicating bearish momentum dominance.
- The MACD histogram continues to print below the zero line, with no clear sign of bullish crossover.
These readings suggest that while the bounce provided temporary relief, underlying buying pressure remains insufficient to confirm a trend reversal. Without a decisive move above $0.0000156, the bearish bias on the weekly timeframe remains intact.
Elliott Wave Analysis Points to Downside Pressure
One of the most compelling arguments for further downside comes from Elliott Wave theory, which offers insight into potential price trajectories based on recurring wave patterns.
Since its all-time high in 2021, Shiba Inu appears to have completed a full five-wave decline (labeled in red), followed by a corrective A-B-C pattern (in green). This structure typically signals the end of a countertrend move and sets the stage for another leg down.
There are two primary scenarios moving forward:
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation with Measured Target
If the current decline forms another A-B-C correction, and wave C equals wave A in length, the projected downside target lands near $0.0000077—representing a drop of roughly 30% from current levels.
Scenario 2: Full Five-Wave Bearish Impulse
More concerning is the possibility that the current move isn’t corrective but instead part of a new five-wave bearish impulse. In this case, SHIB could fall below its 2023 low of $0.0000054, opening the door to significantly lower prices.
A confirmed breakdown below $0.0000113 would validate either scenario, signaling that sellers have taken control and bearish momentum is accelerating.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the significance of the $0.0000113 support level for SHIB?
A: This price zone represents a confluence of long-term technical support—combining a rising trend line from 2023 and a key horizontal price level. Its breach could trigger increased selling pressure and accelerate declines.
Q: Can Shiba Inu recover if it breaks below $0.0000113?
A: While recovery is always possible in crypto markets, breaking this support would invalidate the multi-year bullish structure. Any rebound would likely face strong resistance and require substantial volume to regain credibility.
Q: What are the main technical indicators suggesting for SHIB?
A: Both RSI and MACD are showing bearish momentum on the weekly chart. Without a sustained move above $0.0000156 and bullish crossovers in these indicators, upside potential remains limited.
Q: Is there any bullish scenario for SHIB in 2025?
A: A bullish case hinges on SHIB reclaiming $0.0000156 and holding above it with strong volume. Until then, the weight of evidence favors continued downside risk.
Q: How reliable is Elliott Wave analysis for cryptocurrencies like SHIB?
A: Elliott Wave works best when combined with other tools like support/resistance and volume analysis. While not foolproof, it provides valuable probabilistic insights—especially in well-defined trending markets like SHIB’s since 2023.
Q: What should investors do if SHIB approaches $0.0000077?
A: That level could act as a potential accumulation zone, especially if accompanied by bullish divergence on RSI or MACD. However, position sizing and risk management should remain top priorities.
April Rally Possible—but Unlikely to Reverse Trend
Historically, April has seen increased volatility in crypto markets, sometimes sparking short-term rallies. Some investors hope for a similar uplift in SHIB this year, potentially driven by ecosystem developments or broader market sentiment.
However, technical structure suggests any rally is more likely a selling opportunity than the start of a new uptrend—unless SHIB can decisively break and close above $0.0000156 with strong volume.
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Until such confirmation occurs, traders should assume the path of least resistance remains downward.
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Final Outlook: Support Holds—for Now
For now, Shiba Inu’s 658-day support remains intact—but under growing threat. The confluence at $0.0000113 has proven resilient in the past, yet repeated failure to build upward momentum increases the odds of a breakdown.
Traders should monitor:
- Price action around $0.0000113
- Weekly closes above $0.0000156
- RSI and MACD for early signs of reversal
- Volume trends during rallies or drops
While sentiment remains fragile, those considering entry points should wait for clearer confirmation signals before committing capital.
The coming weeks will be critical. A breakdown could pave the way for new multi-year lows; a sustained breakout might revive bullish hopes. Until then, caution remains the best strategy.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.