Bitcoin’s latest bull market is far from over—but it’s entering its final act. According to recent analysis by Rekt Capital, approximately 88% of this bull cycle has already unfolded, leaving limited room for explosive growth while significantly increasing downside risks. While optimism remains, the pace has slowed, and investors must now navigate a more cautious phase of the rally.
This cycle stands out from previous ones due to its unusually long post-halving reaccumulation period, which lasted nearly eight months—longer than any prior cycle. This extended consolidation helped stabilize the market after rapid price surges, aligning Bitcoin’s trajectory with long-term technical trends and reducing the risk of an early, unsustainable peak.
Despite not yet reaching a confirmed all-time high, Bitcoin has shown resilience by holding above key support levels. The current structure suggests that while further upside to $130,000–$150,000 is still possible, the probability of a major correction—potentially as deep as 60–70% after the peak—is growing.
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Understanding Bitcoin’s Market Cycle
Bitcoin doesn’t move in random bursts; it follows predictable macro cycles driven by supply dynamics, investor behavior, and halving events. Historically, each bull market peaks around 550 days after the halving, a pattern that has held true across multiple cycles.
With the most recent halving occurring in April 2024, a peak around October 2025 aligns with historical timing. That leaves only 2–3 months of potential upward momentum, suggesting most significant gains have already occurred. While some analysts speculate the cycle could stretch into 2026, relying on proven patterns offers a more reliable framework for decision-making.
During this phase, price movements become more volatile and sentiment-driven. FOMO (fear of missing out) intensifies, retail participation increases, and media attention surges—all classic signs of a maturing bull market.
Key Phases of a Bitcoin Bull Cycle:
- Accumulation: Smart money buys quietly after the halving.
- Markup / Expansion: Institutional inflows begin; price rises steadily.
- Mania / Blow-off Top: Retail frenzy drives prices to extremes.
- Distribution & Correction: Early holders cash out; market reverses sharply.
We are now likely in the transition between markup and mania—where caution becomes critical.
Current Price Structure and Technical Outlook
As of the latest update, Bitcoin reached a new local high but has not yet surpassed its previous all-time high. Crucially, it continues to trade above a major trendline support at $105,200. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains intact.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Support: $105,200 (bullish trendline)
- Immediate Resistance: $110,400 – $113,500
- Next Target: Break above $113,500 opens path to $130,000+
A decisive close above $113,500 could trigger renewed momentum toward six-figure territory. However, failure to break through may lead to sideways consolidation or even a pullback.
In the short term, a minor correction is possible—especially if profit-taking accelerates. Yet, so long as Bitcoin stays above $107,280, there are no clear signs of a local top forming. The broader trend remains upward, with incremental gains expected in the coming weeks.
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Why This Bull Run Feels Different
One of the defining characteristics of this cycle is its disciplined pace. Unlike the parabolic rallies seen in 2017 and 2021, this bull run has progressed more gradually. Several factors contribute to this:
- Longer reaccumulation phase: Nearly eight months of consolidation allowed weaker hands to exit and stronger buyers to enter.
- Institutional adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have created a more stable inflow of capital.
- Macroeconomic uncertainty: Persistent inflation concerns and shifting Fed policies have made investors cautious despite crypto’s appeal.
These elements have combined to create a more resilient market foundation—but also one that may lack the explosive energy of past peaks.
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These keywords naturally reflect user search intent around Bitcoin’s current phase and future outlook.
Risks Ahead: Preparing for the Inevitable Downturn
Even in strong bull markets, corrections are not just possible—they’re necessary. After peaking, Bitcoin has historically experienced drawdowns of 60–90% before entering a new accumulation phase.
Given that about 88% of this cycle is complete, the risk-reward balance is shifting. The remaining upside is limited compared to prior stages, while the potential for a sharp reversal grows daily.
Investors should consider:
- Taking partial profits at higher levels
- Setting stop-loss orders or hedging strategies
- Avoiding leverage during late-cycle volatility
- Monitoring on-chain metrics like exchange outflows and whale activity
Market sentiment indicators also show increasing euphoria—a contrarian warning sign. When everyone expects prices to keep rising, the stage is often set for a reversal.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market?
A: Yes. Despite slower momentum, Bitcoin remains in a bull market as long as higher highs and higher lows continue to form and key supports hold.
Q: How much higher can Bitcoin go?
A: Analysts project potential targets between $130,000 and $150,000 if bullish momentum sustains through Q3 2025.
Q: When might the bull market end?
A: Based on historical cycles, Bitcoin could peak around October 2025—approximately 550 days post-halving.
Q: What causes Bitcoin’s bull cycles?
A: The primary driver is the halving event, which reduces new supply every four years. This scarcity, combined with growing demand, fuels price appreciation over time.
Q: How likely is a major correction?
A: Highly likely after the peak. Past cycles saw corrections of 60–90%, and there’s no reason to expect this cycle will differ.
Q: Should I sell my Bitcoin now?
A: That depends on your investment strategy. Many investors use tiered selling—taking profits at predetermined levels—to manage risk without exiting entirely.
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Final Thoughts: Navigating the Late-Stage Rally
We are deep into one of the most methodical Bitcoin bull runs in history. The extended reaccumulation phase has built a stronger foundation than in previous cycles, but time is running out for major gains.
With about 88% of the cycle completed, investors should shift from aggressive accumulation to strategic risk management. The next few months may deliver final upside toward $130K–$150K—but they also carry heightened risk of a sharp reversal.
Staying informed, watching key technical levels, and avoiding emotional decisions will be crucial in the final stretch. Whether you're holding long-term or actively trading, understanding where we are in the cycle gives you a vital edge.
The bull run isn’t over—but its climax is approaching fast.