Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is regaining momentum in the crypto market, posting a strong upward move with a 6% surge on Wednesday and maintaining a 2% gain by Thursday’s reporting time. Trading near the critical psychological level of $500, BCH has formed a bullish ascending channel pattern, signaling sustained buying pressure. More importantly, on-chain metrics suggest that this rally may have further room to run before encountering significant profit-taking resistance.
With technical structure aligning with positive market sentiment and derivatives data reinforcing optimism, Bitcoin Cash appears poised for a potential breakout toward its 52-week high. Let’s break down the key indicators driving this momentum.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Continued Upside Potential
One of the most telling indicators of Bitcoin Cash’s current position in the market cycle is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, tracked weekly by analytics platform Santiment. The MVRV ratio helps identify whether investors are, on average, in profit or loss — offering insight into when widespread selling might occur.
As of the latest data, BCH’s weekly MVRV stands at 0.665, still below the threshold of 0.729, which historically has triggered profit-taking events. For context, levels around 0.729 coincided with pullbacks in March and May 2024, as traders locked in gains after extended rallies.
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This means that despite recent gains, many holders are not yet at peak profitability — leaving room for additional upward movement before selling pressure intensifies. Should the MVRV ratio climb beyond 0.729, it could push toward the December 2024 peak of 1.01, indicating a significantly higher profit margin across the network and potentially fueling a stronger bullish phase.
In essence, the current on-chain environment suggests that we are in the mid-phase of a recovery cycle, not yet overheated, and structurally supportive of further price appreciation.
Derivatives Market Reflects Growing Bullish Sentiment
Market sentiment is also being reinforced in the derivatives space. According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin Cash’s open interest (OI) has surged by 7.85% over the past 24 hours, reaching $471.99 million. This increase indicates fresh capital entering the futures market, typically a sign of growing trader confidence.
An expanding open interest alongside rising prices often confirms a sustainable uptrend — especially when driven by long (bullish) positions rather than short squeezes.
Further supporting this view, the funding rate for BCH perpetual swaps has turned positive at +0.0014%, meaning long-position holders are paying shorts. This is common during strong bullish phases, as exchanges incentivize shorts to balance one-sided markets.
A positive funding rate in a rising market shows that demand for leveraged longs is strong and persistent — not just a short-term spike. This kind of organic demand often leads to more durable rallies compared to pump-and-dump scenarios driven by hype alone.
Technical Analysis: Ascending Channel Hints at Breakout
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin Cash is forming a clear ascending channel on the daily chart — a classic continuation pattern that suggests ongoing bullish momentum.
According to FXStreet analyst Vishal Dixit, BCH has risen for two consecutive days and is now approaching $505, its year-to-date high. This level aligns with the upper trendline of the channel, formed by connecting highs from May 10, May 23, and June 19.
The lower boundary of the channel is supported by a series of higher lows recorded on April 16, May 5, May 30, and June 22. As long as price holds above this ascending support line (currently near $450), the bullish structure remains intact.
Key Fibonacci Levels in Focus
The recent rally pushed BCH above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $490**, a psychologically and technically significant zone derived from the drop from its 52-week high of **$640 down to this year’s low of $249.
Clearing this level increases the likelihood of testing the next resistance at the 78.6% Fib level near $556 — which would represent a major step toward reclaiming lost ground.
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Moreover:
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has stabilized and avoided a bearish crossover below its signal line, indicating renewed bullish momentum.
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits at 64, remaining above the neutral 50 level and showing early signs of reversal after a brief pullback — suggesting buyers are regaining control.
A daily close above the upper trendline of the channel could confirm a breakout, opening the path toward $556 and possibly even retesting the $640 high if broader market conditions remain favorable.
However, failure to hold above $490 could lead to a retest of the channel’s lower boundary around **$450**, where strong support is expected due to prior accumulation activity.
FAQ: Common Questions About Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Price Outlook
What is Bitcoin Cash (BCH)?
Bitcoin Cash is a peer-to-peer cryptocurrency that originated from a hard fork of Bitcoin in 2017. It was created to enable faster transactions and lower fees by increasing block size, making it more suitable for everyday payments.
Why is MVRV important for BCH price prediction?
The MVRV ratio compares market value to realized value, helping determine whether investors are in profit. A rising MVRV below key thresholds (like 0.729) suggests room for growth before profit-taking pressures emerge.
What does an ascending channel mean for traders?
An ascending channel indicates a sustained uptrend with rising support and resistance levels. Traders often use it to identify entry points near support and target exits near resistance or upon breakout.
Is BCH likely to reach $640 again?
Reaching $640 — its 52-week high — is possible if BCH maintains momentum above $490 and breaks through $556. Strong on-chain metrics and increasing open interest support this scenario, though macroeconomic factors and Bitcoin's overall trend will also play a role.
How do funding rates affect BCH’s price?
Positive funding rates suggest strong demand for long positions in futures markets. While excessive rates can signal over-leverage, moderate positivity like +0.0014% reflects healthy bullish sentiment without immediate risk of a crash.
What should investors watch next?
Key levels to monitor include:
- Support: $450 (channel floor)
- Resistance: $505 (current high), then $556 (78.6% Fib)
- On-chain triggers: MVRV crossing above 0.729
- Derivatives signals: Sustained open interest growth and stable funding rates
Final Outlook: Room to Run Before Profit-Taking Heats Up
Bitcoin Cash is showing compelling signs of strength across multiple dimensions — technical structure, on-chain fundamentals, and derivatives activity all point to sustained bullish momentum.
With MVRV still below previous profit-taking thresholds, traders and investors may have time to position before selling pressure builds. The ascending channel offers a clear roadmap: hold above $450, aim for $556, and eye $640 if momentum accelerates.
While no asset moves linearly upward, BCH’s current setup suggests we’re in a phase where strategic accumulation and measured entries could yield favorable outcomes over the coming weeks.
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As always, risk management remains essential — especially when approaching breakout zones where volatility tends to spike. But for those watching Bitcoin Cash closely, the data says one thing clearly: the upward journey isn’t over yet.
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