Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) is displaying promising signs of a potential bullish breakout after months of sideways consolidation. Trading between $0.11 and $0.15 for much of early to mid-2025, HBAR now appears poised for a decisive move — with growing open interest and rising trading volume suggesting that institutional and retail traders alike are positioning for a breakout above the critical $0.1616 resistance level.
If this key price barrier is breached with strong volume confirmation, HBAR could set its sights on the $0.18–$0.20 range, marking a significant reversal from its previous downtrend.
Renewed Momentum in HBAR Derivatives Market
One of the most telling indicators of shifting sentiment is the surge in open interest within HBAR’s derivatives market. Recently, open interest climbed to 11.89 million contracts, a notable increase from earlier 2025 lows. This uptick reflects renewed trader confidence and growing participation in both futures and perpetual markets.
While open interest briefly spiked to over 452 million contracts in February 2024 — a level not sustained due to market volatility — the current rise is more measured and appears backed by genuine accumulation rather than speculative frenzy.
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The current environment suggests that traders are building long positions ahead of a potential breakout. Unlike short-lived spikes, sustained growth in open interest combined with rising prices typically indicates that new capital is entering the market — a strong signal of bullish conviction.
Rising Volume Confirms Accumulation Phase
Alongside growing open interest, HBAR trading volume has increased significantly in late Q2 2025. Daily volume spikes have coincided with rising price volatility, particularly around the $0.145–$0.150 zone, indicating active buying pressure.
High-volume crossovers during consolidation phases are often reliable precursors to trend reversals. When buyers absorb supply at resistance levels with strong volume, it demonstrates demand outweighing selling pressure — a classic accumulation pattern.
Compared to average volume levels seen in mid-2024, current activity represents a meaningful uptick. Though not yet at peak frenzy levels, the consistency of volume growth supports the narrative that smart money may be accumulating ahead of a broader rally.
Technical Outlook: $0.1616 as the Make-or-Break Level
On the 4-hour chart, HBAR is currently trading at $0.1478, hovering just above key short-term moving averages — the 9-day and 20-day EMAs. This positioning suggests short-term bullish momentum is building.
The immediate resistance lies at $0.1616, which aligns with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This level has repeatedly acted as a ceiling in past rallies, making it a psychologically and technically significant threshold.
A confirmed close above $0.1616 — especially on high volume — would likely trigger algorithmic and momentum-based buying, opening the path toward **$0.18 and eventually $0.20**.
Key Support Levels to Watch
- Strong support at $0.146, which has held multiple times in recent weeks.
- Secondary support at $0.142, representing the lower boundary of the current consolidation.
- A break below $0.14 could signal renewed bearish pressure, but current indicators suggest this scenario is less likely given rising trader engagement.
Positive Momentum Indicators Signal Shift in Sentiment
Technical indicators are increasingly painting a bullish picture:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 53.79, moving from neutral territory into moderate bullish momentum. It’s no longer oversold and shows steady upward bias.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has posted a bullish crossover, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line — an early sign of momentum shift from bearish to optimistic.
While these signals aren’t extreme, they reflect a meaningful change in market dynamics. The transition from sideways drift to constructive technical formation suggests HBAR may be exiting its accumulation phase and preparing for a directional move.
Is HBAR Transitioning from Accumulation to Uptrend?
The confluence of rising open interest, increased volume, and improving technical structure points to a market in transition.
For months, HBAR traded in a tight range — typical of periods where large investors accumulate positions before a major move. Now, with derivatives activity heating up and momentum indicators turning favorable, the asset appears to be laying the groundwork for a potential breakout.
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A successful push above $0.1616 could act as a catalyst, triggering stop-loss hunts and FOMO-driven buying from sidelined traders. The target zones of **$0.18–$0.20** are not only technically justified but also represent a return to levels not seen since late 2024.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the significance of the $0.1616 resistance level for HBAR?
A: $0.1616 aligns with the 200-day SMA and has repeatedly blocked previous rallies. A confirmed breakout above this level could signal the start of a new uptrend, potentially targeting $0.18–$0.20.
Q: Why is rising open interest important for HBAR?
A: Increasing open interest indicates new positions are being opened, often signaling growing trader confidence. When paired with rising prices, it confirms bullish momentum rather than short squeezes or speculative noise.
Q: What does high trading volume during consolidation mean?
A: Elevated volume during sideways movement suggests accumulation — buyers are absorbing supply at key levels. This often precedes strong directional moves once resistance is broken.
Q: What are the next key support levels if HBAR drops?
A: Immediate support sits at $0.146, followed by $0.142. A drop below $0.14 could invalidate the current bullish setup, though current indicators suggest downside risk is limited.
Q: Can HBAR reach $0.20 in 2025?
A: Yes — if HBAR sustains a breakout above $0.1616 with strong volume, a move toward $0.18–$0.20 becomes highly probable, especially with continued positive market sentiment and adoption.
Q: How do RSI and MACD support a bullish outlook for HBAR?
A: RSI above 50 shows strengthening momentum, while the MACD bullish crossover indicates short-term trend reversal. Together, they confirm improving market structure and increasing buying pressure.
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Final Thoughts: A Breakout Could Be Imminent
HBAR has spent much of 2025 consolidating after a prolonged downtrend. But recent shifts in derivatives activity, trading volume, and technical indicators suggest the market may be nearing a turning point.
With open interest climbing and momentum building around $0.147–$0.15, all eyes are on the $0.1616 resistance level. A decisive break above could unlock significant upside potential, potentially pushing HBAR toward $0.18 or higher.
Traders and investors should monitor volume confirmation and derivatives data closely — these will be key to validating any breakout attempt.
As accumulation patterns mature and sentiment turns cautiously optimistic, HBAR may finally be ready to transition from sideways to soaring.