Bitcoin climbed 0.4% to trade near $109,800, briefly touching a daily high of $110,590 amid positive macroeconomic signals from the U.S. labor market. The latest employment data revealed stronger-than-expected job growth, reinforcing confidence in economic resilience and fueling optimism across both traditional and digital asset markets. While Bitcoin broke through a key technical resistance level, the broader crypto market remained relatively stable, with most major assets showing modest movements. Ethereum edged up to $2,592, recovering from recent lows, while Solana-based meme coin Bonk led gains among top 100 cryptocurrencies with a 10% surge.
Market Reaction to Strong Labor Data
The U.S. Department of Labor reported 147,000 new non-farm jobs in June—well above the 110,000 forecast and an improvement from May’s revised figure of 144,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, defying expectations of a rise to 4.3%. This unexpected strength signaled continued labor market durability despite ongoing Federal Reserve rate hikes. Weekly jobless claims also dropped to 233,000 (vs. 240,000 expected), with the four-week average falling to 241,500.
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Equity markets responded positively: the Dow Jones rose 75 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.38%, and the Nasdaq led with a 0.62% increase. However, rising bond yields—particularly the 10-year Treasury note climbing to 4.334%—tempered enthusiasm, indicating that investors now expect fewer near-term rate cuts. This shift has led traders to anticipate that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25–4.5% for longer than previously anticipated.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Consolidation Before Breakout?
Bitcoin’s move past $110,500 marked a significant technical development—it broke out of a bearish descending channel that had been in place for the past 39 days, formed after the asset reached its all-time high of $111,814. Though price action has pulled back slightly to $109,781, the breakout remains valid as long as support holds.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, suggesting healthy bullish momentum without entering overbought territory (above 70). This range—between 50 and 70—is often seen as ideal for sustained uptrends, indicating buyer conviction without excessive speculation.
However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 12 paints a more cautious picture. ADX values below 20 indicate weak trend strength, meaning neither bulls nor bears are in firm control. This phase typically precedes major directional moves as the market consolidates energy—often referred to as “coiling before the spring.”
Despite this, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) show a bullish structure: the 50-day EMA is positioned above the 200-day EMA, forming what traders call a "golden cross." This configuration reflects sustained buying pressure and is often associated with long-term bullish momentum.
Additionally, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is currently showing an “On” status, signaling volatility compression. Historically, such phases precede sharp price expansions—either upward or downward. Given the recent breakout and positive market sentiment, many analysts believe the next move could be upward.
Key Bitcoin Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $108,000
- Strong Support: $104,000
- Immediate Resistance: $110,000
- Strong Resistance: $112,000
A close above $112,000 could open the door to retesting the all-time high.
Ethereum Shows Signs of Recovery
Ethereum rose to $2,592 after rebounding from intraday lows of $2,374. While price movement has been modest, technical indicators suggest potential for further upside.
The RSI sits at 57—firmly in neutral territory—indicating that selling pressure may be subsiding after a prolonged bearish phase. This mid-range reading often precedes trend reversals or base formations, especially when accompanied by increasing volume or bullish catalysts.
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s ADX is at 12, reflecting weak trend strength and a consolidation phase. However, this isn’t necessarily bearish; after a strong rally, low ADX can signal accumulation by institutional investors or “smart money” building positions before the next leg up.
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A concerning factor remains the “death cross” on ETH’s chart—the 50-day EMA still sits below the 200-day EMA. This formation typically indicates prolonged bearish dominance. Yet today’s price action shows buyers stepping in despite this headwind, suggesting growing confidence.
With the Squeeze Momentum Indicator also in “On” mode and price breaking higher today, Ethereum may be entering a volatility expansion phase. A confirmed breakout above $2,700 could trigger a sustained rally toward $2,900.
Key Ethereum Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $2,500
- Strong Support: $2,400
- Immediate Resistance: $2,700
- Strong Resistance: $2,900
FAQ: Understanding Crypto Market Moves Amid Macroeconomic Shifts
Q: Why did Bitcoin rise after strong jobs data?
A: Strong labor data suggests economic resilience, reducing fears of a near-term recession. While it delays expectations for rate cuts, it also supports risk-on sentiment—benefiting assets like Bitcoin that thrive in stable yet growing economies.
Q: Does higher bond yield hurt cryptocurrencies?
A: Generally yes—rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to risk assets. But if growth remains strong and inflation is under control, crypto can still perform well due to increased investor confidence.
Q: What does a “squeeze” mean for crypto prices?
A: A volatility squeeze occurs when price action narrows within tight ranges. When the squeeze releases (“On” status), it often leads to explosive moves—either up or down—making it a key signal for traders.
Q: Is a golden cross bullish for Bitcoin?
A: Yes. When the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA, it signals long-term bullish momentum and is often followed by sustained price increases.
Q: Can Ethereum recover despite the death cross?
A: Absolutely. Technical patterns aren’t destiny. If buying pressure continues and fundamentals improve (e.g., network upgrades or ETF approvals), Ethereum can reverse bearish structures over time.
Q: How do macroeconomic reports affect crypto markets?
A: Reports like non-farm payrolls influence Fed policy expectations. Tighter policy can pressure risk assets short-term, but strong growth without crisis often supports digital assets over time.
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Conclusion: A Market at an Inflection Point
Bitcoin’s breakout from a bearish channel and Ethereum’s consolidation near key supports suggest both assets may be setting up for larger moves. While macroeconomic strength has delayed hopes for rate cuts, it has also reinforced confidence in financial markets overall. With technical indicators pointing to potential volatility expansions and smart money accumulation, traders should prepare for increased price action in the near term.
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As momentum builds and institutional interest grows, staying informed and strategically positioned will be crucial for navigating the next phase of this evolving market cycle.